Adley Rutschman is on the verge of a make-or-break season in 2026, both in fantasy baseball and in real life. He will get the majority of the starts at catcher for the Baltimore Orioles, but it remains to be seen if that regular playing time translates to productivity in fantasy baseball. The catcher position isn’t known for being one that has many above-average players, so any player who can hit slightly above average can get consideration as a mid-to-late-round pick.
Rutschman hasn’t been able to translate his elite prospect accolades to the majors, and his numbers have been trending in the wrong direction for the past two years. His 2025 season was his worst at the MLB level, as he was limited to 90 games and 365 plate appearances while hitting a career-low .220.
Rutschman’s numbers were career-low figures across the board, with his on-base percentage (.307), slugging (.366), and OPS (.673) also being personal worsts. He’s reportedly healthy and has been swinging the bat well in spring training, so Rutschman could be on the verge of a bounce-back campaign in 2026.
Adley Rutschman’s Strengths, Weaknesses, and 2026 Fantasy Projection
When it comes to analyzing Rutschman’s strengths, it’s hard to find any positive news. Dating back to July 2024, Rutschman has managed a lowly .209/.294/.332 batting line. His trajectory is worrisome, and it seems the days of him being a catcher who can hit consistently in the .250 to .260 range are long gone.
He dealt with injuries to both obliques in 2025, so that might have factored in his poor numbers, but Rutschman’s overall trajectory over the last 18 months doesn’t bode well for his fantasy potential in 2026.
He still has the power to hit around 15 to 20 homers per season if he stays healthy, and at least he continues to have an above-average eye at the plate. An uptick in his average around the .240 mark could translate to his OBP hovering around .330 or .340 if he maintains his career walk rates, as he’s had a walk rate of at least 11% in three of his four seasons in the majors. Other than that, though, it’s hard to get excited for Rutschman as a legit fantasy option.
He doesn’t run enough to steal bases, going 2-for-4 in the last three seasons, and he should be much better as a run producer, considering he only had 29 RBI in 90 games in 2025. The Orioles’ lineup should be better in 2026, which should boost Rutschman’s run-producing numbers, as he had 80 and 79 RBI in the two seasons in which he played regularly (2023 and 2024) following his MLB debut in 2022.
With this in mind, it’s hard to see where Rutschman could be drafted in most formats this year. He gets the benefit since the catcher position doesn’t have a lot of elite talent, but his numbers in 2025 were below average even for the catching standards.
If we take a look at Rutschman’s ADP, he’s around the No. 150 range, so he’s seen as a top-15 catcher by all standards. Of course, that probably shows a ton of faith in him delivering a bounce-back performance. His numbers from the 2025 campaign don’t reflect that status.
Having a strong grip on the starting role gives him decent upside in terms of playing time, but Rutschman isn’t a catcher you should target to be a primary option at catcher. He’s more of a second-to-third-tier catcher at this point, but at the same time, his bounce-back potential is just too big to ignore.
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