One of the most popular MLB predictions every year is to determine which player will lead the majors in ERA. One of the most traditional, but perhaps not the most effective, ways to assess a pitcher’s quality, it remains one of the strongest metrics for analysts. Generally, the better the pitcher is, the lower his ERA.
In the 2025 season, Paul Skenes led the majors in ERA after posting a pristine 1.97 ERA across 32 starts with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was the only pitcher in the majors to post a sub-2.00 ERA, and he was one of four hurlers with an ERA below the 2.50 threshold. The others were Tarik Skubal (2.21 with the Detroit Tigers), Hunter Brown (2.43, Houston Astros), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.49, Los Angeles Dodgers).
It would be easy to bet on Skenes or Skubal to win the ERA title in 2026. They won the Cy Young in 2025 (in the NL and AL, respectively) and are arguably the two best hurlers in the majors.
However, Skenes is not expected to repeat another season with a sub-2.00 ERA, especially after the Pirates sacrificed defense to improve their offense in 2026. The same goes for Skubal, who had a tumultuous offseason and could very well be a candidate to get traded in 2026 since he’ll be a free agent in the winter.
Why Yoshinobu Yamamoto Is the Top Candidate for the 2026 MLB ERA Title
Our best bet to win the ERA title in the 2026 season is none other than Yamamoto, who plays for the Dodgers and has the luxury of being the best pitcher on the 2024 and 2025 World Series champions. He was a bit underwhelming in the 2024 campaign, his first year in the majors, but he bounced back admirably in 2025 with a 2.49 ERA, the fourth-best mark in the majors, at age 27. He’s simply scratching the surface of his potential.
Yamamoto also finished fifth in WHIP (0.99) and limited opposing hitters to a league-best .183 average. Opposing hitters had all sorts of problems hitting him, and that will only get tougher as Yamamoto refines his approach ahead of his third year in the majors. With the intangibles surrounding Skubal and the unlikeliness of Skenes delivering a second straight year with an ERA below 2.00, don’t overlook Yamamoto ahead of the 2026 season.
The Japanese pitcher, who will be the Opening Day starter for the Dodgers, could be in line for a special season after thriving in the 2025 MLB playoffs. Don’t be surprised if he’s able to translate that success into an ERA title in 2026.
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