We are past the Opening Day festivities and on to the grind of the MLB season. The defending AL champions find themselves in an awfully advantageous spot and headline our MLB predictions for today.
Best MLB Predictions for Friday, March 27
Solano’s Pick: Why the Blue Jays Will Cover -1.5 Against the Athletics
Kevin Gausman is 2-4 in 10 career starts against the Athletics, but he has a decent 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in those outings, with one complete-game shutout and 65 strikeouts over 60 innings. Gausman went 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with 8 strikeouts over 9 1/3 innings in three spring training starts.
Luis Severino is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career, as he had a 4.54 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 124:50 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) over 162 2/3 innings last year. Severino has not returned to the form he showed from 2017 through 2022, a span in which he posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Over the last three seasons, the two-time All-Star has instead put up a 4.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
Given Gausman’s track record against this lineup and his ability to miss bats at a high rate, combined with Severino’s recent inconsistency and declining results, this matchup leans clearly toward Toronto. Backing Gausman and the Blue Jays in this spot is the more reliable angle, especially with the pitching edge firmly on their side.
Soppe’s Pick: Why Luis Severino Will Stay Under 3.5 Strikeouts Against the Blue Jays
Same game, different flavor for me.
Toronto was the toughest team to strike out in baseball a season ago, and I don’t really see that changing in 2026. You know the stars from your fantasy baseball teams, but to feel good about any pitcher under strikeouts, you have to have questions about him and like the depth of options in the opposing offense.
Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement are two pieces that help turn rallies into runs and big innings into game-enders by keeping the line moving. The tandem struck out just 120 times across nearly 1,000 at-bats in 2025, and those are the types of connective pieces that make this Toronto offense uniquely dangerous.
As for Luis Severino, the end may be near. Solano mentioned the worst season of his career, and I’ll build on that.
- 17.6% K-rate (career low, down 3.6 percentage points from 2024)
- 26.3% chase rate (career low)
- 59% first-pitch strike rate (career low)
- 36.1% Hard% (career high)
There’s a world in which the Severino markets swing too far in the negative direction. He’s very much trending the wrong way, and while I don’t think that changes anytime soon, he did throw 94.2 pitches per start last season, and sheer volume could get him to some “overs” in the future.
But the future isn’t now, and it’s not against the Jays.
Aravena’s Pick: Why the Marlins Will Cover -1.5 Against the Rockies
The Rockies were one of the worst teams in MLB in 2025, with a 43-119 record, including a woeful 18-63 mark on the road. Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly park in the majors, but this game will be played at LoanDepot Park, and with a park factor of 101 according to Baseball Savant, the impact the venue has on the offense is close to neutral.
This should spell doom for the Rockies, a team that averaged a mere 3.68 runs scored per game last season and didn’t make any substantial upgrades to its lineup for the upcoming campaign.
Since the Marlins also have the advantage on the mound, with Sandy Alcantara taking the ball for Miami and Kyle Freeland for Colorado, this is shaping up to be a game where everything points to Miami cruising to victory.
Freeland posted a 4.98 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 124:38 K:BB across 162 2/3 innings in 2025, but perhaps the most worrying stat is the fact that his 4.51 FIP away from Coors Field was actually worse than his 3.76 FIP at home.
The Marlins have enough pieces on offense to unsettle Freeland quickly, and if Alcantara enjoys a strong start to the year, look for Miami to cover the -1.5 handicap with ease.
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