Not every bet is comfortable. Being comfortable being uncomfortable is a part of the game, especially in a sport that is daily like this. Our daily MLB predictions aren’t short on unique angles for this, the final day of the first week of the season.
Expert MLB Predictions and Betting Picks for March 29
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: Backing the Rockies +1.5
I don’t envision this being a season where I pound the table for the Rockies with any sort of consistency, but I’m backing them today.
To be clear, this is more of a gentle tapping of the table than pounding. This remains one of the most talent-deficient teams in the big leagues, and I don’t think 37-year-old Jose Quintana is exactly the answer.
READ: Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Projections and Schedule
That said, the little good form we have gotten from the veteran in the past few seasons has come early, and it’s not exactly like betting against Miami is an uncomfortable position to take.
- 2022: Didn’t allow more than 3 ER in a start until June 7.
- 2023: No more than 2 ER allowed in 5 of his first 6 starts.
- 2024: 7 ER allowed through his first 4 starts.
- 2025: Entered May with a 1.14 ERA.
Max Meyer is an encouraging young pitcher who I have multiple shares of in fantasy. There are good days ahead, and the Colorado matchup scares no one, but he does have a double-digit barrel rate in his big-league reps, and we saw him fade down the stretch of 2025 (27 ER allowed in his last 34.2 innings after allowing just 7 in his first 30).
Included in that run was a home start against Colorado (5 innings, 10 hits, 4 ER).
I’m not calling for that, but I will say this game looks like the first two of the series, and that gives us every chance to cash a click that may not feel great when you make it.
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: Betting the Under on 8.5 Runs
Pitching is often ahead of hitting this time of year, and we’ve seen more of the same league-wide to open 2026.
I think it continues.
Shane Baz was just extended by the Orioles, and that has me thinking that they are in alignment with me in thinking that his xERA (3.86) last year is much more predictive than his raw ERA (4.87).
Bailey Ober falls into a similar bucket (his advanced profile has been more encouraging than his standard one in consecutive seasons). He had 8 starts a year ago in which he allowed no more than 1 earned run in 5+ innings of work, upside that seems to be a bit underpriced in today’s line.
This Twins offense is the target here. They are counting on Byron Buxton and Josh Bell more than I think a team in 2026 should be, and that opens up the door for an under ticket to cash.
In 2025, Buxton’s OPS was 222 points lower in same-handed matchups, and while Bell prefers to hit from the left side, we know he’s streaky, to say the least (14-of-102 through April last season).
I like that we saw Baz’s ground-ball rate spike last season, and while the results haven’t been great, Ober’s BABIP was 48 points higher in 2025 than 2024. I’m not suggesting that we see a pitchers’ duel, but with a total like this, if one pitcher pays off the hope of his underlying numbers, I think we tuck in under this total.
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