A full day of baseball with first pitches ranging from 12:10 p.m. to 9:45 p.m. ET?
Our MLB predictions lean into the early games in an effort to start your Wednesday off on the right foot. We’ve got a breakout star featured as well as two offenses that appear poised to explode.
Best MLB Predictions for Wednesday, April 22
Orioles at Royals: Betting the Over
ESPN has a day game today, and I think they get their money’s worth in terms of entertainment value. Kauffman Stadium is a neutral park that leans the way of the pitcher, but I don’t think it matters in this spot.
We are talking about two of the top 10 offenses in baseball thus far when it comes to average exit velocity, and that should be evident from the jump. Neither Chris Bassitt nor Michael Wacha inspires fear in the hearts of opponents with devastating strikeout stuff, and that means we should see plenty of loud contact.
Wacha’s raw numbers look solid this season, though a .172 BABIP (120 points below his career rate) has a lot to do with that. If the contact was weak or on the ground, I could support him being an aberration, but that’s simply not the case.
It’s early, but he’s trending toward career worsts in both fly ball rate and average exit velocity allowed. You don’t need a physics degree to know that is troubling, and the craziest part is that he owns the more favorable of the pitching outlooks for the day.
Bassitt has just seven strikeouts in 16 innings this season, something that figures to continue. His 21.5% chase rate is underwhelming, and that’s saying something for a pitcher who doesn’t tempt hitters to expand the strike zone in the first place. Of the 90 qualifiers since the beginning of last season, Baltimore’s righty owns the seventh-lowest chase rate, thus indicating that the small 2026 sample isn’t a fluke.
Both of these offenses have a star player, and both grade as better than league average in the discipline metrics. We are going to see good swings on pitches inside the zone, and that’s all we can ask for. Baseball can be a funny game if those lasers are hit at fielders, but I’m happy to bet on that not being the case for the entire afternoon, and that’s landed me on the over for this contest.
Blue Jays at Angels: Backing the Angels Run Line
I’ll ride with Jose Soriano until the wheels fall off. Soriano is in the run of his life. He’s 5-0 to start the season, with a microscopic 0.28 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and a 39:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 32 2/3 innings over five starts.
The amount of walks does cause some concern, but he’s limiting home runs as a groundball pitcher. He’ll regress eventually, but it’s hard to go against him right now.
The Blue Jays counter with Eric Lauer, who comes in with a 1-3 record, 7.13 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 16:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17 2/3 innings over four appearances (three starts). He’s surrendered four home runs this season, including three over his last two appearances. I think backing the Angels is the play here. I trust in Soriano’s current form while fading Lauer’s struggles with run prevention and home runs.
Braves at Nationals: Why the Over Will Hit
The Braves’ offense, and specifically Matt Olson, has thrived at Nationals Park, and Atlanta has already established itself as one of the best lineups in the majors with several hot bats up and down the lineup. If it’s not Olson, then it’s Austin Riley. Or maybe Ronald Acuña Jr.
But don’t sleep on the Nationals’ lineup, either. Both lineups rank in the top 10 in collective OPS entering Wednesday’s slate, so unless there’s an ace on the mound, all signs point to this game being a high-scoring contest.
Martin Perez will take the mound for the Braves, while Zack Littell will do so for the Nationals. Littell has allowed current Atlanta hitters to hit for .317 with a .473 xSLG. Perez hasn’t done much better in a limited sample size, with Washington hitters posting an xSLG of .702 in nine plate appearances. Don’t be surprised if the offense takes center stage here.
Leave a Reply