In early rounds, a “bust” is usually a pitcher being drafted near his ceiling while carrying a clear path to missed time, shortened outings, or workload management that cuts into Points volume.
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers To Avoid
Cole Ragans
Cole Ragans carries early-round risk because his 2025 season introduced real durability questions after he was shut down late with left shoulder trouble. The pure stuff still plays at a high level, but Points formats are unforgiving when volume gets interrupted.
If he does not immediately return to a full, uninterrupted starter workload, the margin between his draft cost and actual return tightens quickly. Betting on the ceiling is easy, but the workload floor is not quite as stable as his price suggests.
Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta’s swing-and-miss ability keeps him attractive, but the persistent command volatility creates real Points risk. When his walk rate climbs, his pitch counts spike and he struggles to consistently work deep into games, which directly caps weekly scoring.
Peralta can still produce dominant outings, but the floor is shakier than most pitchers drafted in his range. If he is priced like a bankable SP1, the path to mild disappointment is very real.
Blake Snell
Blake Snell’s per-start dominance is never the issue. The concern is whether he delivers the kind of clean, full-season workload that early-round pitchers need to justify their cost. His track record shows frequent shorter outings and occasional durability interruptions, which matter more in Points formats than in roto.
Even if the ratios and strikeouts remain strong, falling short of true workhorse volume can quietly drag down his overall value. At a premium price, that gap becomes meaningful.
Framber Valdez
Framber Valdez remains extremely effective at run prevention, but his fantasy profile is more fragile in Points leagues than it appears. He relies heavily on contact management rather than overwhelming strikeout volume, which leaves less room for error if efficiency slips at all.
After another heavy workload season, even a modest pullback in innings or command sharpness would narrow his edge. When drafted as a high-end anchor, the return can look more solid than league-winning.
Chase Burns
Chase Burns is an easy name to overpay for because the raw arsenal is electric, but workload management is the key risk. Young power arms are rarely pushed immediately into full-season starter volume, and any managed innings plan would limit his Points ceiling in year two.
The strikeout upside is obvious, yet Points formats reward sustained volume more than flashes of dominance. If his draft price assumes a full breakout workload, the downside becomes clear.
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