Late-round busts are usually pitchers whose name value or upside gets drafted ahead of the realistic workload, timetable, or role.
Starting Pitchers to Avoid in 2026 Fantasy Baseball
Tyler Glasnow
Tyler Glasnow’s bust case still revolves around workload reliability entering 2026. The Los Angeles Dodgers managed his innings carefully last season after multiple stints on the injured list, and early spring expectations again point toward a measured approach rather than a true workhorse deployment.
Even when he is dominant on a per-start basis, he has rarely been allowed to pile up the kind of volume that separates elite points arms. In this format, missed innings and shorter cumulative workloads matter more than per-start brilliance. If he is drafted assuming a full ace workload, the downside remains very real.
Spencer Strider
Spencer Strider’s bust case comes down to where the draft price settles relative to his post-surgery reality. He returned from right elbow surgery last season with decreased velocity and a 4.45 ERA, and expecting the exact same overpowering version from his peak season is still aggressive.
The key question for points leagues is whether he consistently works deep enough into games to justify an SP1 price. If the innings ramp is even slightly managed early in the season, the volume gap matters. Drafting him at full peak cost leaves very little margin for that adjustment period.
Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler’s risk is subtle but real for points formats. He continues to operate as a frontline starter when healthy, but he is recovering from thoracic outlet decompression surgery and is expected to miss the start of the season.
His delayed start to the year will chip away at the volume edge that drives his elite points value. His skill set remains strong, but when he is drafted near the very top tier of starters, the path to merely good rather than league-winning becomes clearer. At full price, the floor is not quite as bulletproof as it appears.
Roki Sasaki
Roki Sasaki’s bust path is tied directly to workload management in his first full MLB season. The Dodgers have been openly cautious with their Japanese starters, and early camp messaging has reinforced that they plan to be measured with his usage rather than immediately pushing a traditional ace workload.
That likely means extra rest at points during the season and careful inning buildup, even if he is dominant on a per-start basis. In points leagues, where total innings drive value, that usage ceiling creates real downside if he is drafted as a full-volume SP1.
Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole is a late-round bust if drafters ignore the current timeline. He is actively progressing in camp and has already thrown bullpen sessions while experimenting with a slightly adjusted delivery, which is an encouraging step in his rehab.
However, the New York Yankees still expect him to miss the start of the 2026 season and are targeting a late May or June return window. Even if the recovery continues smoothly, the delayed workload makes him a risky points investment unless the draft cost fully reflects the missed innings.
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