Austin Riley was the picture of durability from 2021 through 2023, avoiding the injured list entirely during that stretch. The past two seasons have told a different story. He missed 52 games in 2024 due to a fractured right hand and then sat out significant time in 2025 because of three separate core injuries that ultimately required sports hernia surgery in August, ending his season prematurely.
Despite the missed time, Riley’s underlying skill set remains intact. He continues to drive the baseball to all fields and profiles as a four-category contributor at third base. Strikeouts have historically limited his ability to push his batting average back over .300 as he did in 2021, but his consistent hard contact helps stabilize his floor and prevent extended slumps.
Riley entered this offseason without restrictions and worked with Atlanta hitting coach Tim Hyers to regain the timing and mechanics that fueled his earlier production. That is a key distinction from the previous winter, when right-hand surgery kept him in a cast until January and forced him to play catch-up during spring training.
Although he has missed 112 regular-season games over the past two seasons, he appears positioned to rediscover the form that saw him average 36 home runs, 99 RBIs, and 159.3 games played from 2021 through 2023.
What to Expect from Austin Riley in 2026 Fantasy Baseball
Riley’s strengths in fantasy baseball points leagues center on his elite power output and run production potential in the heart of Atlanta’s lineup. When healthy, he consistently delivers home runs, RBIs, and strong counting stats, and his ability to impact the ball with authority keeps his weekly ceiling high. He also benefits from lineup protection and a favorable home environment, both of which enhance his scoring opportunities.
The primary concern is durability. Back-to-back injury-affected seasons introduce legitimate risk, particularly after sports hernia surgery.
His strikeout tendencies also cap his batting average upside and can create short-term volatility in points formats that reward contact and on-base production. If the injuries linger or his swing adjustments fail to stick, managers could again face missed time.
Entering 2026, Riley should be viewed as a rebound candidate with legitimate top-30 overall upside if he stays on the field. A reasonable projection includes 30 to 35 home runs, strong RBI totals, and a batting average in the .270 range, with the potential for more if his health fully cooperates. His draft cost has softened after two interrupted seasons, but the ceiling remains that of a foundational third baseman.
As far as third-base hierarchy for fantasy baseball points leagues, I rank him at Tier 3 under Jose Ramirez, Junior Caminero, and Jazz Chisholm Jr., among others, and higher than Maikel Garcia, Alex Bregman, and Eugenio Suárez.
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