There’s plenty of talent at first base ahead of the 2026 fantasy baseball season, but don’t be surprised if there are players who fail to meet the lofty (and not so much) preseason expectations for them. We have three players who are projected to start at 1B for their respective teams in 2026 but won’t meet the expectations, at least in fantasy.
The list includes two aging stars who remain productive but simply aren’t in their prime anymore, and one slugging first baseman who happens to hit for low average in a pitcher’s park.
Fantasy Baseball Busts: First Basemen to Avoid in 2026
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 51)
Harper played in 132 games in the 2025 season, slashing .261/.357/.487 with an .844 OPS, 27 homers, 75 RBI, and 72 runs scored across 580 plate appearances. Those are good numbers, but are they worth being among the top first basemen drafted?
He is past his prime, injury-prone, and no longer a player who is going to produce 30-homer, 100-RBI seasons anymore. Even the 132 games he played in 2025 feel like a reach, and he’s played at least 145 games in just two of his seven seasons in the City of Brotherly Love.
Ultimately, he hasn’t driven in 100 runs since 2019 and hasn’t scored more than 100 runs since 2021. He has surpassed the 30-homer plateau just once in the last six years.
He’s going to remain a steady producer, but not one whose ADP should hover around the 50 range. There are other options to consider at first base, and other players to build your roster around in the first three to four rounds.
Josh Naylor, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 56)
Naylor had one of the best seasons of his career in a contract year in 2025, and he was rewarded by signing a five-year pact with the Seattle Mariners. One of the most surprising areas from Naylor’s performance in 2025 was the fact that he stole a career-high 30 bases, but he’s not particularly fast, so that number is slated to decline considerably in 2026.
Naylor slashed .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs, 92 RBI, and 81 runs scored across 147 regular-season games with the Diamondbacks and Mariners in 2025, but he’ll now hit in one of the toughest hitting environments in the majors in T-Mobile Park.
His ADP of 56 is close to players like Freddie Freeman (56), Ben Rice (67), and Vinnie Pasquantino (81), but there’s a realistic chance Naylor will have the worst year out of those four players.
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers (ADP: 183)
Torkelson has an ADP around the 180 range, which looks fair at first glance, but he’s a slugger who will undoubtedly be hampered by the context he’s playing in. Torkelson, the first overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, had the best season of his career in 2025, slashing .240/.333/.456 with 31 home runs, 78 RBI, and 82 runs scored across 649 regular-season plate appearances.
The batting average was a career-best mark, but he also had a BABIP over .280 for a second straight year, so some regression might be overdue.
Plus, he struck out in 26% of his plate appearances, and he hits in one of the worst hitting environments of the majors in Comerica Park. Torkelson will deliver solid power production, but not much else.
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