We are just getting started with the baseball season, and like anything, that means we are in the data point acquisition business.
Our MLB predictions for today feature pitchers with large enough resumes to have a feel for what they do and don’t bring to the table.
Soppe’s Pick: Guardians vs. Mariners Under 1.5 Runs Through 5 Innings
Does Bryan Woo get enough respect?
We are nearing eight months since the last time he allowed more than three earned runs in an outing, and I don’t think we see that come close to ending tonight against the light-hitting Guardians.
In 2025, Cleveland had the league’s highest average launch rate and the lowest barrel rate. There’s obviously no guarantee that they hit those extremes again this season, but this is an offense that lacks depth and is being asked to grind out runs in a pitcher’s park to open their season.
Good luck.
Woo is as good a pitcher at finishing off at-bats once the second strike is in his pocket (last season: .112 BAA in such spots), and that means the fourth-most likely offense to chase pitches out of the zone from 2025 has to showcase discipline in order to hold the leverage.
Jose Ramirez is great, but his power metrics are far greater when getting to hit from the left side, and that won’t be the case here. I don’t mind taking the Cleveland game total under, but I’d rather make this a Woo-centric wager, and the 26-year-old righty got through at least five frames in every start last regular season.
Fantasy Baseball Help: Daily Pitcher Notes and Projections
Solano’s Pick: Royals vs. Braves Over 8 Runs
Michael Wacha has historically struggled in his career matchups against the Braves. Wacha had a rough spring, going 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in five games (four starts), with 21 strikeouts across 15 2/3 innings.
Reynaldo López, on the other hand, has had mixed results with an elevated ERA and WHIP in his career matchups against the Royals. López also struggled in spring training, as he went 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP with 15 strikeouts across 17 1/3 innings.
Both pitchers enter this matchup with shaky recent form and elevated WHIPs, which points toward consistent traffic on the bases from both sides. With Wacha’s struggles carrying over from spring and López allowing plenty of contact throughout his career, this sets up as a game where both lineups should have multiple scoring opportunities.
Taking the over makes sense here, as neither arm has shown the ability to consistently limit damage heading into the season.
Aravena’s Pick: Rangers vs. Phillies Under 7.5 Runs
The series opener between these two teams ended with a 5-3 win over the Phillies, but we’re leaning toward the under this time around, mainly based on the strength of the pitching matchup. Aaron Nola will grab the ball for the Phillies, while Jacob deGrom will do so for the Rangers. When healthy, these two pitchers are among the very best in baseball, which should limit the scoring potential from both teams.
Nola had a 6.01 ERA in 2025, but he’s a much better pitcher than that, and he was limited to just 17 starts and 94.1 innings last season due to an ankle injury. However, his velocity was up in spring training, so he could be in line for a bounce-back effort. As for deGrom, he posted a 2.97 ERA across 30 starts and 172.2 innings pitched in the 2025 regular season.
When looking at the individual matchups, while Bryce Harper has had some success against deGrom, other key Phillies hitters like Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Trea Turner have historically been below-average hitters for their standards against the 37-year-old veteran. This isn’t a small sample size either, as most have faced him in numerous at-bats.
Things aren’t much better when analyzing how opposing hitters have fared against Nola historically, with several key bats bound to struggle based on past matchups. Nola will rely on his uptick in velocity to see if he can bounce back from his career-worst season in 2025.
Considering the quality of both pitchers and the good results they’ve had against opposing star players in particular in this matchup, this could very well end up being a low-scoring affair.
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