The MLB season kicks off tonight at Oracle Park in San Francisco with the New York Yankees taking on the San Francisco Giants. It’s a standalone game with everyone else opening their season tomorrow, leaving Netflix with a stage to impress as they make their debut as a live MLB broadcaster.
Who will be the first team in baseball to earn a victory?
Predictions for the New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants
Yankees Moneyline
Max Fried’s first season in pinstripes (19-5, 2.86 ERA, 3.38 xERA, 1.10 WHIP) was better than his last one in Atlanta (11-10, 3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) thanks in large part to him rediscovering his form in same-sided matchups.
His struggles against lefties evaporated, and that helped shore up the results. Rafael Devers occupies the middle third of this San Francisco offense, and his OPS against southpaws has been significantly lower than against righties in consecutive seasons.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Projections
The Giants ranked 22nd in team OPS last season while the Yankees paced the league, a difference that could be bluntly obvious tonight if Devers is neutralized in the middle and Fried opens this season in anything close to the form he did last (sub-2.00 ERA through May).
On the other side of that quick-starting coin is Logan Webb. The veteran righty has been a front-end starter for five years now, though he’s been more of a round-into-form type.
- 2023 – First two starts: 11 innings, 13 hits, 8 ER
- 2024 – First two starts: 9.2 innings, 12 hits, 7 ER
- 2025 – First start: 5 innings, 6 hits, 3 ER
If you look at those early starts (10.9 hits allowed per nine innings and a 6.31 ERA), they are nowhere near where he’s been the rest of the way during those three seasons (8.7 hits allowed per nine innings and a 3.18 ERA).
The Yanks are projected for 10 more wins than the Giants this season and have the edge in both starting pitcher and starting lineup. The fragility of the Bronx Bombers is a long-term concern, but this isn’t a long-term bet: It’s for nine innings tonight, and in that scope, I like them in this one.
Eduardo Solano’s Yankees vs. Giants Predictions
Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts and Aaron Judge to hit a home run
Max Fried has a winning record and a strong ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Giants, with a high strikeout rate. The Yankees ace is also highly effective in his career starts at Oracle Park, with a similarly strong ERA.
Last year, Fried was on fire to begin his career with the Yankees, as he went undefeated with a stellar ERA and WHIP across five starts in April. There’s no reason to think he won’t be as dominant at the beginning of the 2026 season.
Logan Webb, on the other hand, is 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees. Aaron Judge is 3-for-7 (.429) with two home runs and three RBIs against Webb, so I see him having a big game to start the season, particularly given his ability to punish sinker-heavy profiles like Webb’s when he elevates the ball.
Beyond Judge, this is a Yankees lineup that profiles well against Webb’s approach, as several hitters in this order are comfortable working deep counts and forcing mistakes up in the zone. If Webb is not locating his sinker with precision early, it can quickly turn into a situation where New York generates traffic and power opportunities, especially in a ballpark that still rewards well-struck contact to the gaps.
I’m on the Yanks with Soppe in addition to these props for their best pitcher and best hitter.
Juan Pablo Aravena’s Yankees vs. Giants Picks
Yankees First 5 innings and Over 6.5 runs
The Yankees have a clear advantage on the mound with Max Fried, who has a winning record and strong ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Giants, while the Giants will have Logan Webb on the mound. Webb has a 5.50 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees, and he’s had problems with several members of the current Yankees lineup throughout his career.
Several Yankees hitters have had success against Webb’s offerings in the past, while Judge is already 3-for-7 with two homers against him. Even though some Giants players have hit well against Fried in the past, such as Willy Adames and Luis Arraez, none have seen extensive action against the Yankees’ ace, so it’s hard to make any sort of comparison or projections.
Elsewhere, it’s worth noting that Oracle is a pitchers’ park, so we could be in line for a lower-scoring matchup. The Yankees were one of the highest-scoring teams in 2025, while the Giants finished in the bottom half of the league in runs scored.
Considering the pitching advantage and the strength of the Yankees’ lineup, I could see the Yankees winning the game after the first five innings. Going with the over in total runs could be a savvy move as well, but only if it’s up to 8.5 total runs. Anything over that mark would be a risky move. The current line is at U6.5, so it’s fairly low considering the Yankees’ scoring prowess and the Giants’ history against Fried, even if Oracle Park is seen as a pitchers’ park.
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