The Cardinals explored trading Nolan Arenado last offseason but were unable to find a deal. He then followed a disappointing 2024 season with an even more difficult 2025 campaign, marking a continued downward trend in his offensive profile.
For the second straight year, Arenado finished with an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) below .300 and posted an average exit velocity that ranked in the bottom 10% of the league. He remains an elite contact hitter, but even an excellent 11.2% strikeout rate (K%) could not prevent his batting average from falling to a career-low .237.
A right shoulder injury limited Arenado to only 23 games in the second half and likely impacted him before that absence. However, it would be a stretch to attribute his full decline to health, as the overall quality of contact has steadily diminished. At age 35 in April, Arenado appears to be a player whose bat no longer generates the same authority it once did during his peak seasons.
The Diamondbacks acquired Arenado and cash considerations from the Cardinals in exchange for Jack Martinez. Arenado waived his no-trade clause to facilitate the deal, and St. Louis is expected to cover all but $11 million of his remaining salary through 2027.
The eight-time All-Star slashed .237/.289/.377 with 12 home runs over 107 games in 2025, missing time with a shoulder issue but ultimately finishing the season healthy. He will take over at third base for Arizona, potentially pushing Jordan Lawlar to the outfield and Blaze Alexander into a utility role.
Arenado joins an infield featuring Ketel Marte at second base and Geraldo Perdomo at shortstop. The projected lineup blends youth and experience, with Corbin Carroll in right field and Gabriel Moreno behind the plate providing a strong foundation.
Arizona could also add Paul Goldschmidt to split first base with Pavin Smith. With Alek Thomas in center field, the Diamondbacks have a young and dynamic outfield while adding a veteran presence at the hot corner.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals appear committed to a full rebuild. Young players such as Nolan Gorman are expected to take on larger roles, and the salary relief from Arenado’s contract provides additional flexibility to accelerate the organization’s youth movement.
Evaluating Nolan Arenado’s Strengths, Weaknesses, and 2026 Projection
For fantasy baseball points leagues, Arenado’s strengths remain his elite contact skills and low strikeout profile. His bat-to-ball ability and consistent playing time give him a stable floor in formats that penalize swing-and-miss hitters.
However, his weaknesses are significant for points scoring. The lack of hard contact, declining power, limited on-base skills, and reduced run production cap his scoring ceiling. Age-related regression and shoulder durability concerns add additional risk when projecting his 2026 output.
For 2026, Arenado projects for a batting average around .245 to .255 with 15 to 20 home runs, below-average walk totals, and modest counting stats in an improving Arizona lineup. While he should continue to play regularly due to his defense and experience, the offensive ceiling that once made him a premier fantasy asset is no longer present.
As far as third base hierarchy for fantasy baseball points leagues, I rank him at Tier 8 under Jose Ramirez, Junior Caminero, and Jazz Chisholm Jr., among others, and higher than Jared Triolo, Brooks Baldwin, and Nolan Gorman.
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