Opening Day Picks: 4 Bets That Could Exploit Pitching Edges for Early Payouts

The first full day of the 2026 MLB season is here, and what better way to celebrate than with a few picks to click?

Best MLB Predictions for Opening Day: Thursday, March 26

Soppe’s Play: Why the Angels and Astros Will Go Under 3.5 Runs Through 5 Innings

Hunter Brown is phenomenal, and there are no two ways about that as he comes off a 31-start, 2.43 ERA 2025 season. The advanced metrics check out, he was dominant against righties, and at 27 years old, he might just be entering his prime.

Opponents couldn’t touch him last season, and that was true for all nine innings. On his first trip through the order, Brown consistently suppressed opposing hitters, and he maintained that success across multiple trips through the lineup.

He’s going to do his thing more often than not, and that means that “under” tickets are very much in play whenever you like the opposing starter.

Jose Soriano is an effective innings eater in today’s game (pitching deep into most of his starts a year ago), and that means that an early under makes for a simple handicap: It’s very likely that Brown and Soriano are the only pitchers we have to consider.

Soriano easily paced the league in GB% last season (65.3%), and this Astros offense has struggled to consistently elevate the ball.

The occasional blowup outings are a part of this profile, but the price of this bet doesn’t reflect Soriano often allowing two or fewer earned runs in his starts in 2025. I’m not sold on the depth of the Astros offense, and that means they are going to have to generate a big swing against a heavy ball pitcher.

Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker have both seen some of their numbers dip over that stretch against same-sided pitchers. It’s not rare to see pitching ahead of hitting this time of year, and I’ve got this game reflecting as much.

Solano’s Play: Expect Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Go Over 5.5 Strikeouts Against the Diamondbacks

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA in six career starts against the Diamondbacks. Corbin Carroll is just 1-for-17 (.059) against Yamamoto with six strikeouts, while Geraldo Perdomo is 2-for-10 (.200) with two Ks.

Yamamoto played a pivotal role throughout the Dodgers’ World Series run last season, finishing as the pitcher entrusted with the final outs in their 11-inning Game 7 victory at Toronto. He was dominant across the series, securing wins in both of his starts, and followed that by throwing 96 pitches over six innings in Game 6 before returning the next night to record the final outs and seal the title.

Overall, he was 3-0 in the World Series with a 1.02 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in 3 games (2 starts) with 15 strikeouts over 17 2/3 innings.

The Japanese phenom delivered a strong spring training, consistently missing bats and limiting damage.

Zac Gallen has struggled this spring, and he has a losing record with a pedestrian ERA in his career starts against the Dodgers.

I like Yamamoto to clear his punchout number in this one, and if you want to swallow a little less juice, his Dodgers to cover the run line.

Aravena’s Play: Why the Cubs Will Cover the -1.5 Run Line Against the Nationals

The Cubs will have Matthew Boyd on the mound for their opener Thursday, and the veteran lefty was an All-Star in 2025 while posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 179.2 regular-season innings.

The Nationals will counter with Cade Cavalli, and while the 28-year-old right-hander is loaded with potential, he has only 11 MLB starts, posting a 5.09 ERA in that span. He gets the Opening Day nod in a rotation that won’t have many quality options available as the Nationals continue to navigate the waters of a long rebuilding process.

Chicago not only has the advantage at the mound, but it also has the edge of playing at home: Visiting Wrigley Field and its windy conditions isn’t easy for any team, and the Nationals have a young lineup that might be susceptible to the nerves that come with the start of a new season. Feelings and perceptions aside, the Cubs are simply a better team from every angle you can think of, but this is mainly noticeable on offense.

Even though the Cubs won’t have Seiya Suzuki (knee), having the likes of Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and others should be enough to see Chicago as a strong favorite to open the season with a win. Don’t be surprised if the Cubs jump into an early lead and end up securing the victory.

After all, the Cubs were among the best offenses in baseball in 2025 with 4.9 runs scored per game, and they should pick things up right where they left off to open 2026 with a comfortable win.

Soppe’s Play: Betting the NRFI in the Rangers vs. Phillies Matchup

With aces on display for Opening Day, we are getting a nice price on NRFI in this matchup, and I’m pouncing.

Both offenses have high-end talent, that much we know, but in terms of early fireworks, I’m not sold.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the two to fear in any bet like this in a game with the Phillies, but neither was as consistent as you’d expect against right-handed pitching a season ago.

Schwarber has seen his numbers fluctuate based on pitching matchups.
Harper’s BA was 20 points lower vs. RHP than LHP.

By themselves, I’m not fearing those splits, but early in the season against a pitcher who can keep lefties in check.

On the other end, Cristopher Sanchez held opponents in check early in games, boasting a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio overall.

It’s a small sample, but for a NRFI bet, we have to be aware of how a pitcher does when his best is required. When fading early runs, you largely want to have confidence that your pitchers can handle three-hole hitters … something Sanchez did at an elite level a season ago.

I largely like pitching to be ahead of hitting this time of year, and this is one way I’m leveraging that tonight.