Why Pete Alonso Faces Fantasy Baseball Regression After Signing with Baltimore Orioles

Pete Alonso will be wearing a new uniform in the 2026 MLB season, and for the first time in his career, he won’t be calling Citi Field his home. After spending his entire career as a member of the New York Mets, Alonso left Queens and moved to Baltimore after signing a five-year, $155 million contract with the AL East franchise.

Despite switching from the National League to the American League, Alonso shouldn’t see much change in his status as one of the premier first basemen in the majors. He’s coming off another impressive 2025 campaign, slashing .272/.347/.524 with an .871 OPS mark that ranked first among all qualifiers at the position. Alonso also smacked 38 homers and 41 doubles, leading all 1B in the former and tying Matt Olson for the lead in the latter.

At first glance, the numbers look impressive, but the fact that he was surrounded by elite company in the Mets lineup provided him with enough protection. Based on that, there’s doubt on whether he’ll be able to repeat those numbers in the 2026 campaign while getting used to new surroundings.

The approach, power, and RBI numbers should remain there, and Alonso should remain one of the top first basemen in baseball. We’ll take a more in-depth look at what he might bring to the table in a fantasy perspective in his first year with Baltimore.

Fantasy Baseball: Strengths, Weaknesses and 2026 Projection

Alonso is one of the best power-hitting first basemen in baseball, and there’s no reason to believe that will change in 2026. The AL East is one of the toughest divisions in baseball and will have to face the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays regularly, but Alonso should continue to find ways to produce. After all, he’s smacked 264 home runs since making his MLB debut in 2019, the second-best mark in the majors in that span.

The move to Baltimore should boost Alonso’s power numbers as well, and the impact he’ll have on offense can’t be overlooked. The “Polar Bear” hit 38 long balls in 2025, and that figure more than doubled that of any Orioles player a season ago. For the sake of comparison, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg led the O’s with 17 homers apiece in 2025.

However, there are areas that might suffer compared to the 2025 season, as he won’t be hitting behind Juan Soto, one of the best on-base threats in MLB, and that could impact his RBI numbers considerably. Plus, the fact that he’ll be the Orioles’ main offensive threat will make him a target for opposing hurlers, so a regression in the batting average column is expected, especially considering that his .272 mark in 2025 was a career-best.

Alonso should remain an elite first baseman, and there’s nothing wrong with making him one of your first choices — maybe as high as a late second-round or early third-round pick depending on the format of your league. He’s going to continue to produce, but there’s some regression that could occur in a few areas that will be directly tied to his new team and overall collective upside. After all, the Orioles ranked 24th in runs scored in 2025 (677).


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