After a slow day on the diamond, we are back with a full slate of action that packs the late slate with interesting matchups. Can Yoshinobu Yamamoto regain the elite form we saw during the first few weeks? What do we make of Bryan Woo’s all-or-nothing profile? There are no shortage of notable spots tonight and, thanks to our Fantasy Starter Projections, we have a beat on some of the best angles.
MLB Predictions for Tuesday, May 12
Diamondbacks at Rangers: Rangers (-0.5) First 5 Innings
Baseball is a game of a million moving pieces, and it’s difficult to handicap all of them. In this market, I (likely) get to avoid the bullpens and thus skirt some variance that could put the Rangers in danger with time.
It’s also a game of imperfections and failure. Mackenzie Gore’s ERA is trending toward the worst of his career, a number that has ballooned thanks to a lack of consistent control (3+ walks in three straight and five times this season).
That’s a real concern. A real concern for another day. The Diamondbacks have ranked as one of the five most likely lineups to extend the strike zone all season long, and if you remove this flaw from Texas’ southpaw, we stand to see his pedigree shine.
He hasn’t allowed a homer in six of his eight starts this season, and the advanced metrics are optimistic (sub-4.00 FIP and xFIP). Fatigue has sunk the Gore ship this season (.357 batting average against when he makes a third trip through the lineup), but this market allows us to not sweat that in a major way (.202 batting average against during the first two trips through).
Zac Gallen is opposing Gore tonight, and he’s battling demons that I think are far more likely to be exploited. His strikeout rate is in the midst of tanking, and his barrel rate is trending toward the highest of his career.
For a short bet like this, it’s comforting to see that both lefties and righties have made loud contact off of him (both boasting an OPS over .760). Our job is to follow the numbers and trust the process: this lines up great for a home team that has been unable to find much of a groove so far in 2026.
Rockies at Pirates: Pirates -1.5
The Michael Lorenzen experiment with the Rockies has been a mess. A pitcher with flyball tendencies not working at Coors Field, no one could see that coming, right? Sarcasm aside, he carries a disastrous 6.92 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and 26:12 K:BB in 39 innings over nine appearances (eight starts) this season.
This game is on the road, where he’s pitched better, posting a 4.43 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 15:4 K:BB in 20.1 innings over five appearances (four starts). Don’t confuse “better” with “good”,
The Pirates turn to Paul Skenes, who has given up one or zero runs in six of his eight starts and he’s limited opponents to two or fewer baserunners in three of his appearances. Skenes has a 2.36 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 46:7 K:BB in 42 innings this season. I’m fading Lorenzen.
Nationals at Reds: Reds ML
The Reds have been one of the worst offensive teams in the majors according to several metrics. Even though they rank fourth in homers (53), they’re also the fifth-worst team in runs scored (164) and sit dead last when it comes to collective batting average (.219).
Under normal conditions, it would be odd to recommend such an offense in any fantasy or DFS slate, but the Reds have the advantage of playing at home, where they rank 17th in OPS (.718), and that should be enough to believe they can come away with the win since they’ll be facing Miles Mikolas and the Nationals.
Mikolas has been one of the worst pitchers in the majors this season, but he showed some signs of progress the last time out after allowing just two runs on three hits across 5.1 innings, fanning three. Still, Mikolas owns a 6.75 ERA across four road starts this season with a 2.3 HR/9 in that span. That’s far from reliable considering the power in the Reds’ lineup in a hitter friendly park.
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