After a light day on the diamond, we are back to a full slate that features every team in the league taking to the field within a 3.5-hour window.
Our MLB predictions take a peek at some pitchers in danger of giving up runs in bulk in the early going, and the pitchers who stand to benefit from that run support.
Best MLB Predictions and Picks for Tuesday, April 21
Reds vs. Rays Prediction: Back Cincinnati Moneyline
This is a matchup of two starting pitchers off to strong starts results-wise in 2026. Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Steven Matz owns a 3-0 record with a 3.80 ERA in April, while Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns has allowed one or fewer earned runs in three of four outings, with righties recording just five knocks in 38 at-bats against him this season.
Both of these offenses have struggled to make loud contact (both bottom 10 in barrel rate to date), and that makes capitalizing on run-scoring chances of the utmost importance. Neither pitcher has been especially vulnerable in such spots, and that’s been a result of their ability to wiggle out of trouble by way of the K.
- Matz: 28.6% of at-bats with men on base result in a strikeout
- Burns: 29.6% of at-bats with men on base result in a strikeout
That’s a nice skill to have, especially in this era of three true outcomes, but only one projects favorably in this matchup. Early in this season, the Rays are a 25th percentile offense in terms of zone control, while the Reds rank in the 75th percentile.
If Matz isn’t benefiting from the opposition helping him out by making the strike zone larger, I have my concerns that he puts himself at risk one too many times in this spot. Tampa Bay owns the league’s worst reliever xERA, giving me further confidence that should the road team take a lead early, they hold on, if not extend, the margin down the stretch.
Dodgers vs. Giants Prediction: Back Los Angeles to Cover
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto has four quality starts in four appearances this season, and he’s yet to allow more than two runs in any outing. Yamamoto comes into this game with a 2.10 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 21:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 25 2/3 innings of work.
San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Tyler Mahle, on the other hand, has allowed at least five runs on eight hits in two of his four starts, which led to his 0-3 record, 7.23 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and 7.07 xERA. He has a 21:12 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB).
Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman is 6-for-16 with a double, a home run, and six RBIs against Mahle, while third baseman Max Muncy is 5-for-16 with a double and two RBIs, and catcher Will Smith is 3-for-8 with a double, a home run, and two RBIs. While Mahle’s 3.83 xFIP suggests he’s due for positive regression, I can’t trust him in this spot.
The Dodgers are the side here, with Yamamoto providing stability on the mound and Mahle continuing to allow damage, making this a favorable setup for Los Angeles.
Twins vs. Mets: Nolan McLean over 6.5 strikeouts
The Mets are in dire need of a win, as a weekend sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs means they’re now riding an 11-game losing streak while having one of the worst offenses in the majors. However, the Mets are just too talented to continue struggling at this rate, and they’re bound to get back to the winning column in this series against the Minnesota Twins, who happen to be struggling quite a bit in the AL Central as well.
The Mets have a huge edge in the pitching matchup in Tuesday’s series opener, as they’ll have Nolan McLean on the mound, who owns a 2.28 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 28:8 K:BB over 23.2 innings spanning four starts. His last start was impressive, as he allowed one run on two hits and two walks while striking out eight batters over seven innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers last Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richardson, who owns an inflated 6.10 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP and 11:7 K:BB through 20.2 innings.
The Mets should feast against Woods Richardson, who has a tendency to give up homers and hard contact. But McLean should also take advantage of a Twins lineup that ranks 14th in total strikeouts this season despite entering Tuesday’s slate with the 10th-best collective OPS. Back McLean to hit the over in strikeouts, as he’s punched out seven or more in three of his four starts this season.
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