There’s plenty of day action on a short slate today, one of our strongest MLB predictions comes on the final game of the day in San Diego. Before we get there, however, there is money to be made by leveraging some advanced trends for a road team. The best place to find spots like that? Stay updated on our Fantasy Pitcher Projections every single morning!
MLB Predictions for Thursday, May 7
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks: Betting the Pirates -1.5
Mitch Keller has given up more than three earned runs in just one of his seven starts, and he carries a 2.85 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 31:12 K:BB in 41 innings. While he is not dominant, he is staying out of trouble, and this is the best he has pitched in his career.
Zac Gallen has a 4.45 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He is dealing with a lot of traffic in most innings, giving hitters too many chances. His 20:10 K:BB reflects how he is not missing bats, so he is lacking a big weapon to help him get out of trouble, which is a similar pattern we saw from him in the last two seasons.
I like the Pittsburgh Pirates here. Keller is staying in control while Gallen is constantly working through traffic, a cycle that usually catches up over the course of a game.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres: Evaluating the Padres Moneyline
We have reached a point where I do not think the market is pricing Michael King correctly, and I plan on punishing them for it.
If you want bar trivia, you can hit your friends with this unique and 100% predictive split. His 2026 ERA against “Sox” teams is 6.17, while his 2026 ERA against non-Sox teams is 1.61.
If for some reason that is not enough to sell the San Diego Padres to your friend group, you can highlight King’s improved numbers against opposite-handed hitters. He has a .489 OPS, down from .716 last season, to complement his strong track record against righties.
Or you could point to him being one of the most unpredictable pitchers in baseball thanks to his flat usage of all of his pitches:
- 27.6% sinker
- 27.2% changeup
- 25.5% slider
- 19.7% fastball
Need more? Most lineups put their top two hitters in the 2-3 holes nowadays, and those two spots have just three knocks in 32 at-bats against San Diego’s talented righty.
He faces Matthew Liberatore and a profile full of holes. The 26-year-old is not missing bats and owns a 9.2% career opponent barrel rate. He is being ambushed, evidenced by a .348 batting average against when one of the first two pitches are put in play, a direct result of his inability to punish batters for falling behind.
Twins at Nationals: Over 8.5 total
I’m pretty sure no one had the Nationals scoring 15 runs (!!) against the Twins on Wednesday on their bingo card. The Nationals delivered a dominant performance in a pitching matchup that was expected to go the other way, but one thing was certain, and this game ended up being a high-scoring contest just like we analyzed it in our MLB Predictions for Wednesday’s slate.
We’re running with the over once again since the pitching matchup looks favorable for another high-scoring contest. The Twins will have Simeon Woods Richardson (0-5, 6.49 ERA) and the Nationals will counter with Jake Irvin (1-4, 4.93 ERA). Neither pitcher has been even close to being a reliable arm, so expect both offenses to feast. The Nationals have the power and productivity to back this up, as they have scored the fourth-most runs in baseball ahead of Thursday’s action with 198. The Twins aren’t too far behind, though, ranking ninth in that category with 178.
The offensive potential and the struggles both pitchers have endured form a combination that’s impossible to ignore. Back the over with confidence.
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