This Saturday brings us first pitches through the entire afternoon, and we have an interesting mix of staff aces along with rotation fills.
Our MLB predictions have you covered across the board with a variety of angles evaluated and spun forward.
MLB Predictions for Saturday, April 11
Marlins at Tigers: Detroit Won’t Bat in the 9th Inning
I’m back again with this market that I like, and I feel good about it. Casey Mize is coming off of a start in Minnesota where he allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 4.1 innings, but that’s part of the deal with Detroit’s righty.
You live with the bad because the good is worth it.
He had multiple starts last season with at least four earned runs allowed, but he also logged several quality starts with many of them being far better than the minimum requirements it takes to earn QS status.
His pitch diet is similar; we just need his velocity to tick up, something you’d expect with reps. His .346 BABIP isn’t here to stay, and a matchup with a below-average barrel rate offense is as good a rebound spot as we could possibly ask for.
In this era of three-true-outcomes, we live for spots like this on the other side. Janson Junk doesn’t have a ton of MLB experience (161.2 innings), but nothing he has shown us proves him to be a strikeout threat, and that is when we love to pounce on the Tigers.
So far this season, Detroit is better than league average in both launch angle and average exit velocity. That puts them in position to land a haymaker or two in the early going, and if we get anything close to the “good” version of Mize, this projects as a rather easy day for the home team.
White Sox at Royals: Kansas City -1.5
Michael Wacha has had success against the Chicago White Sox, going 6-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 11 career starts, with 63 strikeouts and 14 walks across 66 1/3 innings. Wacha has also been outstanding this season, as he is 1-0 with an 0.69 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 10:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 13 innings over two starts.
Erick Fedde struggled last season, going 4-13 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 32 appearances (24 starts) between the St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, and Milwaukee Brewers. He is 0-2 (one start, one relief appearance) with a 4.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 innings this year.
The Kansas City Royals are the side here, with Wacha carrying strong form into this matchup and a proven track record against the White Sox, while Fedde has yet to show consistent results since last season.
Rangers at Dodgers: Over 8.5 runs
When looking at both lineups, the Dodgers and Rangers probably feature two of the most talented, explosive offenses in all of baseball. The Dodgers have backed that up and currently own the best collective OPS in the majors, while the Rangers have stumbled a bit but remain a unit that’s dangerous for any pitching staff. And when looking at the pitchers that will be on the mound, we can see why this game could end up being a high-scoring contest.
The Rangers will send Jack Leiter to the mound, and although his numbers are impressive through two starts (1-0, 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), the Dodgers are a tough matchup for anyone. Los Angeles will counter with Emmet Sheehan, who has an 8.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in his first two outings. With an elite lineup but a weak pitcher, the Dodgers will probably have to score in bunches to have a shot at winning here, thus putting some value on the over in terms of runs.
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