We’ve only got six games to choose from tonight, and that means we have to be intentional with our research. There are plenty of avenues to explore in the various markets, but my MLB predictions today, supported by our Fantasy Starter Projections, leverage the top arms slated to take the bump.
Top MLB Predictions and Betting Picks for Monday, May 11
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays: Under 1.5 Runs Through 3 Innings
Most days are busy across baseball, and that makes it difficult to label my favorite play on the board: Today is not most days.
I love this one. Both of these offenses rank in the bottom quarter of the league in average exit velocity, and if you’re not squaring up these starters, you’re in for a long evening at the park, specifically in the early going.
Opponents are just 7-of-69 with 17 punchouts against Kevin Gausman in his first trip through the order this season. That’s a humbling trend, and with his pitch efficiency pacing to improve for a third consecutive season, this Toronto coaching staff seems to have found a way to extend his near-peak value into his mid-30s.
Not to be outdone, Drew Rasmussen has allowed just a .534 OPS in his first trip through opponent lineups, thanks in large part to his ability to keep righties quiet (6-of-47 this season). That puts Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Ernie Clement all in a tough spot, and if this version of the Jays isn’t getting high-end production from that trio, they are swimming upstream.
This game very much has the potential to be a pitchers’ duel for more than just the first three innings, and I’ll have a variety of bets to back that. As far as a singular play, we are getting plus money for early-game dominance, and we even get a little room for error should a solo home run be surrendered.
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros: George Kirby to Earn the Win
George Kirby has never won 15 games in a season, but I think 2026 is the year and this is a good spot to add to the total.
In this era, you have to feel good about the depth of innings before anything else for a market like this. Kirby isn’t as flashy as some of the elites in the game with video-game strikeout numbers, but that allows him to be among the most efficient in the sport.
The 28-year-old righty is averaging just 14 pitches per inning through eight starts. That green-lights him to go deep into a game against a struggling ‘Stros offense that mustered just one run over the weekend in Cincinnati and has been held to three or fewer runs in six of their past seven.
The quality of pitcher and quantity of innings boxes are checked, leaving us with only one more pressure point: the bullpen. Fortunately, Seattle owns a top-five ERA when their starters exit, giving me faith that, should Kirby be in line for the win, his friends in the later innings can get this bet to the finish line.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Ryan Weathers will make his eighth start of the season on Monday after being cleared to do so from an illness on Sunday. He’s recorded at least five strikeouts in five of his seven outings in 2026 and has cleared this line four times, highlighting a season-best 10-strikeout performance against the Los Angeles Angels on April 14.
Considering that the Orioles rank fifth in the majors in total strikeouts at 378, which results in an average of 9.21 Ks per game, this looks like a solid line for Weathers as long as he’s able to pitch deep into the contest. On that note, Weathers has tossed at least five innings in each of his last five outings.
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