The baseball slate today features back-end pitchers and that makes “trustworthy” spots dificult to come by. That said, our experts have isolated a few MLB predictions that they feel good about given the matchups.
Orioles at Pirates: Orioles moneyline
I’ll take the bait and fade the Buccos. Yes, the past four games have been better than the first four, but this still isn’t an offense I trust and while Chris Bassitt isn’t exactly the type of arm I typically back, I think the books aren’t giving him enough credit.
The 37-year-old isn’t electric, but he knows how to pitch and we’ve seen that by way of an increase in ground ball rate. Pittsburgh struggles to barrel up pitches at a high level and even when they do, the average exit velocity is low.
We don’t have a ton in terms of pro innings to react to for Braxton Ashcraft, but with Gunnar Henderson holding a splits edge and Pete Alonso coming off a .929 OPS year against righties, I’m tempted to lead with the veteran bats over a young arm.
The O’s were a top-10 offense last year in zone swing rate and that’s been the case in the early going this season. As long as Bassitt’s contact profile sticks, I think Pittsburgh has a hard time scoring in this spot and the middle of the Baltimore offense should be able to put runs on the board in this spot.
Astros at Athletics: Astros -1.5
The knock on Lance McCullers is his ability to stay on the field and that’s plenty valid for fantasy managers who have to worry about the season as a whole.
But for today, we are only worried about the next nine innings, and with a strikeout prone offense on the other side that has little feel for the strike zone, I’ve got no hesitation in backing the road squad.
In his first start this season, we saw plus-pitch metrics as he transitions usage from his sinker to his cutter. I love the approach. This is a veteran starter digesting data and making a practical change.
I’m happy to be ahead of the books in upping his ceiling as a result.
Jacob Lopez might be good. Heck, he might be good sooner than later, but his first start makes immediate success a tough sell. In Atlanta, he gave up 11 baserunners (six hits and five walks) in his 22 batters faced and didn’t record a single punchout.
That’s a tough profile to bring into a home ballpark that very much leans in favor of the hitters (hence the 10 run over/under).
I wouldn’t say I’m a McCullers fan or a Lopez fader in the long run, but in the scope of today’s slate, that is the position I’m taking. McCullers is healthy and in a good spot while a top-5 barrel rate takes their act to a run-scoring environment.
Sold.
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