With nearly a week in the books, some teams are turning over their rotations and getting their top arm back on the bump.
Our MLB predictions for today highlight a pair of staff aces who still aren’t priced quite right given the trajectory.
MLB Predictions for April 1
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: Betting the Twins Moneyline
Joe Ryan takes the bump, and Minnesota gets my money; it’s going to be a theme until I get punished for doing it.
The Minnesota Twins haven’t been productive at the dish quite yet, but with top-10 rankings in both launch angle and barrel rate, the upside remains intact.
While I think the scoring picks up, this is more a bet on Ryan than anything. He shined in the opener against a dangerous Baltimore Orioles offense (5.1 shutout innings with one hit allowed and seven strikeouts), holding righties without a hit in the process.
Same-sided hitters have seen their success against Joe Cool dip in consecutive seasons, and if that trend is here to stay, the Kansas City Royals are going to struggle to scratch much of anything across tonight.
The road team owns a reasonably priced moneyline, and if you want to get creative with calling for Ryan to earn his first victory of the season, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to talk you off of it.
Wednesday – White Sox at Marlins – Eduardo
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: Backing the Marlins Run Line
Sandy Alcantara allowed one unearned run on four hits with five strikeouts and two walks over seven innings in a 2-1 home win against the Colorado Rockies on Friday. Alcantara didn’t surrender an extra-base hit in his impressive effort against Colorado, and 49 of his 73 pitches were strikes.
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The veteran right-hander struggled early last season in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he seemed to turn a corner late in the season. He seems to have carried that form into 2026, as he comes in with a 1.84 xERA after Friday’s effort, and he’ll face a reeling Chicago White Sox team that ranks 22nd in runs scored, 20th in batting average, and 23rd in on-base percentage (OBP).
The White Sox will turn to Shane Smith, who gave up four runs (three earned) with two strikeouts and two walks over just 1 2/3 innings in a 14-2 road loss against the Milwaukee Brewers on Opening Day last Thursday.
With Alcantara showing strong command and efficiency while working deep into games, combined with Chicago’s offensive struggles and Smith’s short outing to begin the season, this matchup leans toward Miami. Backing the Miami Marlins here is the more reliable angle given the clear advantage on the mound and the current form on both sides.
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: Mets Moneyline After Five Innings
The New York Mets will send Freddy Peralta to the mound for his second start of the season, and although it’s worth noting that he wasn’t at his best in his debut, he seemed to find a groove after a shaky start. Peralta pitched five innings but earned the win on Opening Day against the Pittsburgh Pirates, allowing four runs on six hits while striking out seven.
However, at one point, he retired eight consecutive batters, and the St. Louis Cardinals aren’t a lineup that inspires fear despite their 3-2 record. Plus, Peralta knows a thing or two about pitching at Busch Stadium following his tenure with the Brewers until last season. Peralta has experience pitching against St. Louis in his career.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals will counter with Matthew Liberatore, who allowed one run on seven hits across five innings in his debut against the Tampa Bay Rays last week, striking out two and walking two. As good as Liberatore looked in the opener, the Mets have one of the best lineups in the National League, and several New York hitters have posted decent numbers (albeit on a small sample size) against Liberatore.
Judging by the strength of the lineup in a pitching-friendly environment, we’re riding with the Mets to earn the win after the first five innings in this matchup.
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