The week opens with a 10-game slate and we have a MLB prediction for three games in this slate. Let’s connect a few dots and start the week off on the right foot!
MLB Predictions for Monday, April 13
All good regression must occur with time.
The tricky part is that we never really know when the math is going to start mathing. We just trust that if we roll the proper dice often enough, we end up on the right side more often than not.
This is me calling my shot.
Astros vs. Mariners: Under 2.5 Runs Through Three Innings
Mike Burrows has given up three homers as a part of 22 hits in his three starts this season (16 innings). He’s issued six free passes over that stretch and has been absolutely lit up by lefties (slash: .400/.471/.633).
Those are all facts, but so is the note that he’s coughed up a .350+ BABIP overall. He’s pitched at home twice in a slightly above-average hitter’s park and at Coors Field once, the place pitchers go to have their ratios demolished.
But now, he takes his show to Seattle to face an offense that has been bottom-five in average exit velocity all season long and goes the other way at a concerningly low rate. This Mariners offense might just be what the doctor (and fantasy managers) are asking for.
On the other side, I think we are getting a touch of a discount on a game that involves George Kirby. I’m aware that he’s allowing a run every other inning this month, but he was back in control of the strike zone last week. He issued zero walks in eight innings after passing out five free passes in 12.0.
Kirby’s launch angle allowed is also nearly half of what it typically is. Houston has relied heavily on a top-10 HR/FB rate in the early going this season, a number that is always at danger of regressing in a pitcher’s park. That becomes all the more impactful against a pitcher with heavy stuff like Kirby.
I’m not positive either team scratches across a run early. Opponents have more strikeouts than hits against Kirby on his first trip through the order this season, and that gives me confidence in under 1.5 if you’d rather play with less juice attached.
Texas Rangers at Athletics: Rangers -1.5
Luis Severino has more strikeouts than innings pitched and has yet to allow a home run this season. If you wanted to squint and view those three road starts against stiff competition as a net positive, I don’t think you’re crazy, but the “how” behind them is what has me worried.
The chase rate and first-pitch strike rate are correlated metrics. It tracks that as one struggles, the other follows suit, and that’s the case here for the 32-year-old righty. Despite not really fooling batters or operating with leverage, he’s been able to scrap and claw his way into controlling the damage.
That is at risk of ending tonight against a Rangers team that paces the majors in hard-hit rate.
While Severino is maximizing his success with a very limited profile, Nathan Eovaldi has gotten just about nothing in terms of returns on what he’s done well. His xFIP through three starts (3.13) is standing side by side with the rate he ended last season with (3.03 in 22 starts), but his ERA is 6.25 runs higher.
His .419 BABIP is hard to explain, and his 22.2% HR/FB is even more aberrational. Walking into a hitter’s park may not be the most comfortable thing, but the Athletics are a bottom-10 offense in launch angle and barrel rate. This makes them the ideal opponent for a pitcher of Eovaldi’s caliber to bounce back in a meaningful way.
He got into the win column on Tuesday against the Mariners, and I give him a good shot at going back-to-back. Even if his inefficient ways catch up to him and prevent him from getting the W, I do think his Rangers are in a good spot to hang a crooked number and cover the spread.
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees: Yankees -1.5
The Yankees were on the losing end of another one-run game on Sunday, after a slow start doomed them in a 5-4 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. However, the Yankees should be able to bounce back in a favorable matchup at home against a struggling Angels team. The Yankees have the better offense, and they should also exploit a favorable matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, who has had tons of problems finding the strike zone this season.
Kikuchi enters this game with a 6.75 ERA through 14.2 innings in his first three starts, allowing at least four earned runs in his last two starts, and he’s also failed to pitch more than six innings in any game. The Yankees have been stumbling offensively and rank 25th in collective OPS (.653) entering Monday’s slate, but they should exploit Kikuchi’s struggles to get things back on track. Kikuchi has limited opposing Yankees hitters to a .222 average with a .307 xwOBA, but his woes are just too big to overlook here.
The Yankees are simply too talented to perform as one of the worst 10 offenses in the majors. Look for them to begin their bounce-back trail with a comfortable win at home against an Angels team that has gone 5-5 on the road this season.
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