We’ve got a full night of action coming our way, and on days like that, it’s easy to fall in love with the big names on the bump. There are a handful of interesting matchups that feature aces, but our MLB predictions today are more leveraging lesser matchups. If you’re looking for a note on all SPs, our Fantasy Pitcher Projections are updated every single morning!
MLB Predictions and Top Picks for Friday, May 8
Pirates at Giants: Robbie Ray Over 16.5 Outs
Robbie Ray is lucky to have the sub-3.00 ERA that he does (FIP: 4.47), and while I trust that the regression will come with time, I don’t think this is the spot.
The Buccos are a middling offense in terms of strikeout rate against righties, but they’ve really struggled in that regard against southpaws thus far in 2026.
While you could argue against Ray’s ratios, the fact that his chase rate is pacing for the second-highest of his career speaks to the quality of his stuff.
Numbers with runners on base tend to regress to a league mean for pitchers not in the elite tiers, but if a pitcher is going to overachieve in that category, a savvy 34-year-old who has a chance to pitch his 1,500th professional inning tonight seems like a good bet.
Through seven starts, Ray has held opponents to just seven knocks in 55 at-bats with men on. Opponents hit just .222 against him in such spots a season ago. The Pirates are a below-average slugging team in those run-scoring spots, leading me to believe that no jam can’t be navigated this evening.
One last thing before the defense rests: Ray is averaging 97.1 pitches per start. It’s rare in this era of baseball to not have to worry about pitch management, but if Ray is throwing the ball well, a triple-digit pitch count is very much within the range of outcomes, and that’s a big reason why I like him to complete six innings at a minimum in this spot.
Athletics at Orioles: Betting the Over 9.5
Jacob Lopez’s 6.60 BB/9 stands out. Right now he’s creating his own damage with walks. His 1.90 WHIP tells us that he’s been in trouble for most innings.
Kyle Bradish is not any better, with 21 walks in 34 innings of work and an inflated 1.82 WHIP. Then we have their high ERAs:
- Jacob Lopez: 6.60 ERA
- Kyle Bradish: 5.03 ERA
This looks bad, right? Walks are piling up for both starters, and that’s how innings get extended and runs stack quickly, so I will take the over in this spot.
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