Wednesday slates are fun. We have action from midday all the way through the night, and there is a nice blend of high-end starters with rotation fillers that can be crushed.
Where do our MLB predictions land for the full day on the diamond?
Wednesday’s MLB Predictions
What to Expect from Wilyer Abreu Against the Twins
Any pro-Abreu angle is something that I will green-light in this spot. I am not sure how many more times, at least in the short term, we get a chance to pick on Simeon Woods Richardson.
The Minnesota Twins righty has plenty of time left in his career to develop at 25 years old, but right now, he is a target at the highest level. His barrel rate a season ago was north of 11%, and that has been the case through three starts this season with a home run allowed in every outing.
Plenty of good pitchers give up bombs, but with a lack of put-away stuff, Woods Richardson is something of a sitting duck that all types of hitters have had success against.
Wilyer Abreu has been a matchup specialist to this point in his career, often taking full advantage of the platoon splits. When he faces a righty, he should have your interest, especially when the pitcher is vulnerable like this.
Boston’s right fielder has proven to be an elite option when it comes to barreling up pitchers with an 11.6% career rate. With a high launch angle — a 23-degree average last season and over 20 degrees for his career — there is serious one-swing potential here.
Want to bet him to homer? Drive in multiple runs? He has had more at-bats with men on base than not this season.
You have my blessing. At the minimum, I’m taking his total bases prop and loading up on DFS shares, with more exposure to come as we get more markets to open the closer we get to first pitch.
Low-Scoring Outlook for Royals vs. Tigers
Seth Lugo has pitched well in three starts this season, posting a 1.53 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 14 strikeouts and six walks over 17 2/3 innings. He has delivered two quality starts in those outings.
Jack Flaherty, on the other hand, is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and 6.63 xERA with 14 strikeouts and 11 walks in 14 innings across three starts. However, the Detroit Tigers right-hander is coming off his longest start of the season.
While Flaherty dealt with plenty of baserunners (he surrendered five hits and three walks), he limited the Twins to one run — a solo home run to Josh Bell — with six strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings to get a no-decision in a 3-1 road loss last Thursday.
Flaherty has dominated the Kansas City Royals in his career. I like the Under 7.5 runs here, with Lugo carrying strong form and Flaherty’s signs of positive regression and track record against Kansas City pointing toward a lower-scoring contest.
Shohei Ohtani Should Find a Way to Dominate the New York Mets
The Mets have been slumping offensively for a while now, and it’s safe to say they’ve been one of the biggest disappointments not just in the National League, but in baseball as a whole.
Entering Wednesday’s slate, the Mets rank 28th in collective OPS (.625), 26th in slugging percentage (.336) and 25th in batting average (.223). They also rank 24th in walks (56) and 26th in runs scored (63). It’s hard to see a lineup featuring the likes of Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette struggle this bad, and to make things even more complicated, Juan Soto has yet to return to action due to a strained right calf.
Mix all these factors together, and it’s easy to see why the Dodgers are favorites to get the win on Wednesday, especially since they’ll have Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Ohtani has pitched at least six innings in his two starts this season, and while the numbers aren’t “dominant” per se, he’s allowed just one earned run on four hits and a 8:4 K:BB through 12.0 frames.
Look for Ohtani to take advantage of a slumping offense to record his best outing of the year, carrying the Dodgers to victory but also being closer to over 5.5 or 6.5 strikeouts. He has the stuff to do so, and with the struggles the Mets have endured lately, this looks like a great matchup for the Japanese two-way star.
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