The final day of March brings with it a full schedule and some exploitable spots. Our MLB predictions for tonight highlight two pitchers in tough spots and one set to shine.
MLB Predictions for March 31
Angels at Cubs: Over 7 Runs
In an era that is all about the three true outcomes at the dish, a game featuring two pitchers who rely on mitigating the damage of contact is … rare.
Jose Soriano looked great in his season debut in Houston (six shutout innings with seven K’s), and I’m generally a buyer of what he brings to the table, but a patient Cubs offense doesn’t profile as the best of opponents to face.
The punchouts were surprising, but that was more of an Astros deficiency (52.1% chase rate) than a predictor of Soriano growth. Chicago was great about not chasing pitches last season and has opened up this year showing more of the same discipline, putting the team in position to account for the first run allowed by LA’s righty this season and potentially much more.
Stay Updated: Fantasy Sports HQ Lineup Tracker
On the other side, Jameson Taillon takes the bump after consecutive sub-19% strikeout rate seasons. He was great to finish out last season after missing 1.5 months (groin), but again, we are talking about a starter who relies on inducing harmless contact against an offense that rarely has problems elevating the ball.
Contact pitchers against high-launch-angle opponents is generally the formula that goes into the few overs I end up taking, and this game shapes up as that.
Mets at Cardinals: Mets RL and Mets ML First Five Innings
Kodai Senga is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 17 strikeouts and five walks in 19 1/3 innings over three career starts against the Cardinals. Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman are a combined 0-for-11 against Senga. In addition to his dominance against the Cardinals, Senga had a solid spring, going 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.72 WHIP with 11 strikeouts and a walk in 9 2/3 innings over three starts.
Andre Pallante had a decent spring, too, posting a 2.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 11 strikeouts and five walks in 14 innings across four starts, but he’s 0-2 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.73 WHIP with 12 strikeouts and 11 walks in 23 2/3 innings across 10 career appearances (three starts) against the Mets.
Francisco Lindor is 6-for-13 with one RBI against Pallante, Brandon Nimmo is 2-for-6 with a double and one RBI, and Mark Vientos is 2-for-4 with one home run and one RBI.
With Senga’s ability to limit baserunners and generate strikeouts, paired with Pallante’s struggles to consistently limit traffic in this matchup, this sets up in favor of New York. Backing Senga and the Mets here is the more reliable angle, especially with the clear advantage on the mound.
Yankees at Mariners: Under 8.5 Runs
Yes, the Yankees have one of the most prolific offenses in baseball and led the majors in scoring in 2025. However, they haven’t looked at their best in the first few games of the season, and this matchup against the Mariners is an intriguing one. Aside from the fact that this game will be played in a pitcher-friendly environment such as T-Mobile Park, it’s worth noting that there’s potential for a battle of aces on the mound since Max Fried will take on Logan Gilbert.
Gilbert didn’t have his best season debut, allowing three runs in 5.1 innings against the Guardians on March 26, but he’s a talented pitcher who should benefit from the environment where he’ll be pitching.
And what’s to say about Fried after he blanked the Giants on Opening Night over 6.1 innings? Even though both offenses have the potential to score run for run, expect the pitching matchup to grab all the headlines. Go with the under in this one. Each of the four games the Yankees have played this season has had under 7.5 total runs, but that has been the case in just two of the Mariners’ four.
Leave a Reply