Today’s slate is pretty well spread out with five games before 5 p.m. EDT, eight in the early evening window and two West Coast games starting late. Our MLB predictions center in that middle range of games with a pair of road teams who project well on the run line. These teams are trending in the right direction and our Fantasy Starter Projections inspire confidence in the SPs on the teams we are backing.
Top MLB Predictions for Saturday, May 9
Why the Twins Can Cover the Run Line Against the Guardians
There are only three offenses with a high launch angle and a low barrel rate: Guardians, Rockies and Blue Jays. That’s generally a profile I like to fade, and while I won’t do it in all spots, I’ll certainly be investing against it when facing a pitcher I trust.
Joe Ryan is a pitcher I trust.
His 3.72 ERA is fine, but it’s extraordinary when you consider that he’s been about as bad as he possibly can be with men on base (56.7% strand rate, far below his career mark of 74.1%). The Guardians have been a below-average offense with runners on base through the first six weeks of this season, making them the perfect spot for Ryan to show his true ace form in the box score.
All seems to be fine with Ryan’s elbow, which forced him out of his last start in the first inning (full-go bullpen session on Wednesday), and if we take the reporting at face value, this is a tremendous price to have at our disposal.
Ryan is working in a knuckle curve for the first time in his career, and it’s had tremendous results to date. Righties have had no answer for him (.185 batting average against with 30.8% of at-bats resulting in a strikeout), and when he’s gotten rolling, he’s been a real threat to carry it into the later innings (opponents are 5 for 26 against him after their second trip through the lineup).
We saw Minnesota’s ace reach his peak form in 2025 around this time (3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in May with 33 punchouts against just five walks), and I think we could see a similar run start today. If that’s the case, these moneyline and run line prices aren’t going to stick: Invest while you have the chance.
Backing the Mets on the Run Line Against the Diamondbacks
These pitchers are heading in opposite directions. Clay Holmes has been consistent; he’s thrown at least five innings and not given up over two runs in all seven of his starts this year, and has a minuscule 1.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 31:14 K:BB in 42.2 innings.
Merrill Kelly, on the other hand, has really struggled, giving up 19 runs in 13.2 innings over his last three starts. He carries a 9.95 ERA and 14:15 K:BB in 19 innings of work, and his 7.11 BB/9 and 2.84 HR/9 are alarming. Yeah, they’re “just the Mets,” as Derek Jeter said, but I’ll trust them here.
Leave a Reply