It’s the final day of the week and we are aiming to end a profitable week with a few totals plays. The first step when it comes to finding viable spots for our MLB predictions is always to consult the Fantasy Pitcher Projections and we have two totals that jump off the screen today in very different directions.
MLB Predictions for Sunday, May 10
Athletics at Orioles: Over 5.5 through 5 innings
If you’re looking for a game to get the Sunday fireworks started, this contest in Baltimore is as good a bet as we have today and it might be the best spot for runs to be put up in bulk as we’ve had this season.
At a very basic level, the offensive infrastructure is there. The O’s are one of the 10 lowest chase rate lineups in the sport and the A’s are as aggressive as anyone when it comes to pitches in the strikezone.
That’s a good place to start and with both teams boasting xSLG rates higher than their actual slugging percentages, we stand to gain a little bit of value on the predictive metrics side of things.
What moves this from a fun game to a must bet is the starting pitchers. Both Luis Severino and Chris Bassit walk over 4.5 batters per nine innings, meaning they could well put us in position to cash this ticket without needing too many big time hits.
Their lack of consistent control has made them awfully hittable when they do properly calibrate their pitch GPS as the opponents are essentially looking for a single pitch or a single location, if not both.
Severnio’s barrel rate allowed is up to 9.5% this season from 6% last and while Bassitt’s been more successfully in avoiding the middle of the bat, his whiff rate is pacing to be as low as anything he’s put on record since 2018.
Both of these starters have been incredibly vulnerable on their first trip through lineups this season (both have an OPS allowed north of .890 in those spots), yet another sign that the scouting report is simplistic and spot on.
You could play the full game “Over” if you like, I don’t think that’s a bad option, but I’d rather isolate these struggling pitchers and take full advantage while they are in the game. I’ll have stack exposure to both of these offenses in the DFS streets today and that makes it a natural place for my betting card to start.
Braves at Dodgers: Under 8.5
Bryce Elder has been solid, he brings a 2.02 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 45:16 K:BB in 49 innings over eight starts, has four straight quality starts and six on the season. He has a .240 BABIP, so he’s had some luck, but he’s missing bats and getting results.
Justin Wrobleski is also getting results, despite lacking strikeouts (15:10 K:BB in 36 innings). Wrobleski is 5-0 in his last five starts, allowing just two runs in 32 innings in that span. He carries an impressive 1.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
The Under is the play here, Elder and Wrobleski have real momentum right now and neither lets the innings spiral, allowing us to avoid crooked numbers and cash this ticket.
Rockies at Phillies: Phillies -1.5
The Rockies are tied for 12th in runs scored this season with 175 (4.37 per game), but that number drops to 4.14 per game when playing away from Coors Field. On paper, they should be able to compete in this series finale on Sunday against the Phillies, but Philadelphia will have a huge advantage in the pitching matchup, and that should tip the scales in their favor.
The Phillies will send Cristopher Sanchez to the mound, and he’s been extremely consistent all season long. Sanchez has given up more than two runs only once in eight trips to the mound, and he owns a 2.42 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 60:14 K:BB through 48.1 innings in 2026.
Meanwhile, the Rockies will counter wth a struggling Tomoyuki Sugano, who has a 3.41 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with a 22:11 K:BB across 37 innings (seven starts). However, the 36-year-old has given up at least four runs in two of his last four contests.
Sugano has been far better on the road (1.69 ERA) than at home (4.71 ERA), so the fact that this game will be in Philadelphia might bode well for them. But overall, the Phillies should be able to get the win here.
The offense is starting to trend in the right direction and have scored the second-most runs in MLB over the last seven days. That should be enough to believe the Phillies should cover the spread here in what looks like a favorable matchup on paper.
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