The Thursday slate has a few games in the evening, but the majority of the action starts before 3:30 p.m. ET. Our three MLB predictions today feature two in the first window of games and one for those of you looking for some later action.
MLB Predictions for Thursday, April 16
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics: Jack Leiter Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Young Jack Leiter came out of the gates firing this season with 17 strikeouts and three earned runs allowed through two starts (11 innings), figures that naturally inflated some of his metrics. The Los Angeles Dodgers humbled him last weekend, tagged for nine baserunners and five earned runs in 3.2 innings, and that has given us a little bit of a window to buy. Through three starts, his chase rate is spiking while his zone swing rate is regressing.
In essence, the best hitters in the world have no idea where these pitches are going to finish and are guessing. This is a hitters’ park, and that only amplifies Leiter’s desire to keep hitters off balance and miss bats. He’s throwing his cutter 7.8% of the time through three starts after not trusting that pitch a season ago, and his changeup usage is up in a meaningful way as well.
He’s learning to pitch, not throw. His pitches have a speed differential that reaches 16 mph, something that further explains the guessing tendencies of overwhelmed opponents. Sitting on an 81-mph cutter is difficult when 97- to 98-mph heat is on your mind.
The Athletics are a bottom-10 zone contact rate offense, and that means if they choose right, it might not matter. I don’t mind paying the premium to support the road team outright, but I’d rather take on a little juice and isolate the Texas Rangers’ budding star on the rubber.
Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros: Rockies +1.5
Tomoyuki Sugano has turned in back-to-back quality starts, though home runs remain a problem. He gave up solo shots to Gavin Sheets and Luis Campusano in the fifth inning of Friday’s 5-2 road loss against the San Diego Padres, but that was all the damage he received over six innings en route to a no-decision. Sugano has a 2.16 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 12:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16 2/3 innings across three starts.
Sugano also brings a 4.99 xERA and 4.08 xFIP, so he will likely regress soon. While the Houston Astros have one of the best offenses in the majors, no one on their roster has faced him except for Carlos Correa, who is 0-for-1.
Lance McCullers Jr., on the other hand, has surrendered nine runs with a modest 8:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 8 1/3 innings over his last two starts. His 5.87 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 4.48 xERA make him hard to trust. Taking the Colorado Rockies behind Sugano is a viable angle here, as his recent results show he can limit damage even when giving up the long ball, and the unfamiliarity factor against the Astros works in his favor.
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees: Max Fried Over 6.5 Strikeouts
The New York Yankees will look to close out the series against the Los Angeles Angels after winning two of the first three games, and they’ll have the advantage of featuring Max Fried on the mound. The All-Star southpaw has been outstanding for the Yankees and has opened the campaign with four straight quality starts.
His most recent outing saw him allow three earned runs in eight innings in a no-decision against the Tampa Bay Rays on the road. His lone start at home was a no-decision against the Miami Marlins, in which he went 6.2 innings, allowing three runs on five hits and three walks while fanning four.
Fried has a 20:5 K:BB in four starts and 28.0 innings. Thursday will be the game in which he’ll finally clear the 6.5-strikeout mark. The Angels lead the majors in strikeouts with 186, so this looks like a strong matchup for Fried.
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