We are back to a full slate with great games across the board. Tuesday’s MLB predictions feature starters to fade along with a developing star on a team rarely considered for backing.
The early season has already provided clear trends for bettors to exploit. Following these specific pitching matchups allows for high-value opportunities as rotations settle into their April rhythm.
With several divisions showing unexpected early leaders, the betting market is still catching up to the current reality of these rosters. Here are the best bets for today’s slate of games.
MLB Predictions for Tuesday, April 14
Parlay: Yankees ML With Athletics +1.5
We get two pitchers that often have my interest pitching on the same day. You could opt to bet these angles separate, but I’m comfortable chasing a greater payday due to my consistency in following these trains of thought.
Fade Reid Detmers. Play Jeffrey Springs.
Detmers struggles with right-handed power, and it’s hard to find a worse place for that flaw than Yankee Stadium. We saw the New York Yankees start Randal Grichuk as a platoon play last night, and I expect we will see that again tonight: one more hard-swinging matchup nightmare.
The Yankees own the lowest swing rate in the league and have been unlucky to date (top 10 in barrel rate but bottom 10 in wOBA). I don’t think all of the regression happens tonight, but a crooked inning or two early seems likely and, given how this team is pitching, that should be more than enough.
As for Springs, he’s probably not the Cy Young front-runner that his numbers currently claim (2-0 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.76 WHIP), but this start for the Oakland Athletics deserves our attention in a serious way.
Those numbers have been put up against the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, and Yankees. He’s struck out at least six batters in two of three starts and now he gets a Texas Rangers offense that has flaws.
- Top 10 in chase rate
- Top 10 in whiff rate
- Bottom 10 in zone contact rate
The Rangers also entered this week with the seventh-fewest PAs against left-handed pitching, making a southpaw an uncomfortable visual. Springs is a three-pitch pitcher with a difference of 12 mph between his heater and his changeup, a profile that is built to have success when in form.
He’s held 1-2-3 hitters to just two knocks in 22 at-bats this season. If he can avoid loud contact against the three fearsome lineups that he’s already faced (two barrels), I’m not sure what the Rangers’ offensive ceiling is, even in a hitter-friendly park.
Betting on the Pirates Against Miles Mikolas
We’ve been here before, and we’ll go back to the well. The Miles Mikolas fade continues until further notice. Mikolas does have a 2.96 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 25 career appearances (22 starts) against the Pittsburgh Pirates, with one complete game and a 102:29 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) across 134 innings, but his 12.41 ERA, 2.35 WHIP, 6.71 xERA, and 11:7 K/BB this season make him a pitcher to avoid.
Mikolas’ 5.13 xFIP suggests he’s due for positive regression, but he’s failed to post an ERA lower than 4.78 in any of his final three seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals. On Wednesday, the Washington Nationals pulled him after he needed 55 pitches to get through three innings, in which he gave up two runs on five hits with three strikeouts and three walks in a 6-1 home loss.
The Pirates turn to Mitch Keller, who’s delivered three straight quality starts to open the season, posting a 1.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.75 xERA, and 11:5 K/BB through 18 innings.
Staying on the Mikolas fade is the clear approach here. With Keller opening the season in strong form and Mikolas continuing to struggle, the pitching matchup heavily favors Pittsburgh.
Can the Red Sox Bounce Back in Minnesota?
The Minnesota Twins destroyed Garrett Crochet on Monday, causing the star southpaw to have one of the worst starts of his career. However, don’t expect that to happen again on Tuesday against a right-hander who has been turning in the right direction. Sonny Gray lasted just four innings in his first start of the season against the Cincinnati Reds on March 28, but he’s been lights-out since April, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.73 WHIP across two starts and 12.1 innings.
With a favorable matchup for the offense as well, as the Twins will send Mick Abel (0-2, 6.08 ERA) to the mound, look for the Boston Red Sox to bounce back from Monday’s ugly loss while covering the spread with ease.
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