We are only graced with six games today, but with 9.5 hours separating first pitches, we have windows to build the bankroll. Our MLB predictions are spread across the board. Make sure you are watching the schedule and loading these options into your card before it is too late!
MLB Prediction: What to Expect from the Diamondbacks and Mets Matchup
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets: Mets moneyline
Eduardo Rodriguez and Nolan McLean have allowed a total of three earned runs in 22.1 innings of work this season. Both have been great through two starts. As a tandem, they have surrendered four hits on 26 at-bats in which the opponent has had runners on base, allowing them to escape the rare instances in which they are in trouble.
Regression is going to hit at some point for both pitchers, and I think one is at a far greater risk of seeing that occur tonight than the other.
If you want to really get in the weeds, Rodriguez is surprising hitters by using his changeup far more often through two starts (35%) than ever before. His previous high for a season was 23.7% back in 2019. This has been a net negative pitch for him over the past five seasons, and that could explain why opponents have been caught off guard seeing it come their way as often as it has up to this point.
If he sticks with that plan tonight, he could be in for a rude awakening with the Mets being one of the best changeup-hitting teams last season and so far into this one.
A little easier to digest is Rodriguez’s inability to miss bats. The strikeout rate has cratered, and he is surviving on weak contact, a strategy that works when you are hitting all of your spots but can go south in a hurry. The Mets are a low-swing, low-chase offense.
It is obviously early, both in the season and the career of McLean, but he posted a double-digit chase rate last season and is trending up so far in 2026. He is moving in a positive direction when it comes to that, and while Arizona isn’t a free-swinging team, they rank in the middle of the pack in terms of chase rate. That should allow the 24-year-old to have some success tonight.
Rodriguez has the name you know, and the books are charging you for that comfort; you are welcome to join me on the other side.
Can the Royals Cover Against the White Sox?
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals: Royals -1.5
Seth Lugo has been impressive in two starts this season, going 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 10 strikeouts and two walks across 11.1 innings. Lugo has also dominated the White Sox in his career, as he is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 21 strikeouts and eight walks in 35 innings across six appearances (five starts) against them.
Anthony Kay has a 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an alarming 8.93 xERA with five strikeouts and six walks in 9.0 innings across two appearances (one start) this season. He struggled in his only appearance against the Royals, as he gave up five runs (four earned) on six hits with three strikeouts over 3.1 innings in a 7-5 road loss on April 15, 2021, when he was with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Rolling with the Royals behind Lugo is the clear play here, given his strong start to the season and his track record against the White Sox, while Kay has shown issues with control and run prevention. The pitching gap favors Kansas City in this matchup.
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